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New cases of COVID-19: Daily trends vary widely among the ten most populous U. S. states

Geogrande.com / Published May 5, 2020

UNITED STATES - As some U. S. states creep out of lockdown in early May, the spread of COVID infection has leveled off in the nation as a whole, but the trend in new cases widely varies among the ten largest states (see accompanying infographic).

Of the ten states, New York shows the sharpest downturn in daily new cases, dropping from 11,571 on April 15 to 4,348 on May 3. Illinois shows one of the largest increases in new cases, rising from 1,346 on April 15 to 2,994 on May 3.

The ten most populated states have about half of the nation’s 328 million population, and about half of the nation’s 1,172,848 of new cases logged since the initial outbreak.

Daily new cases reported by states is a leading indicator of the spread of COVID infection, in contrast to daily deaths—while a human tragedy— is a trailing indicator of infections that occurred several days earlier.

The accompanying infographic shows trends in daily new cases in each state rise or fall in multi-day cycles, with successive cycles having lower lows in falling trends and higher highs in rising trends. Cyclicity is smoothed out in the infographic by showing the 14-day moving averages of new cases in each state.

While the nation’s daily new case count has leveled off, the U. S. has led the world in new cases each day in early May with approximately 25,500 of the world’s 79,400 new cases reported in the U. S. for May 3 on the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard.

Infographic - Daily COVID cases in 10 largest states